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Edited by  Kristin Smith, Reporter
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Atlantic & Pacific hurricane outlook

NHC Forecasts & Warnings (NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)

Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (Surforecasts)

Tropica Storm Noel A Major Concern to Cuba, the Bahamas and then Florida

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 31 October, 2007 : - - At 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Noel was inland over Cuba near 21.4 north and 78.1 west, or very near Camaguey, Cuba and 335 miles southeast of Miami, Fla. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph with tropical storm-force winds extending 175 miles northeast of the center, mostly in localized gusts. The central pressure of Noel is estimated at 1002 millibars, or 29.59 inches of mercury. Current movement is to the west-northwest at 5 mph.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban providences of Sancti Spiritus, Ciego De Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Guantanamo, Granma, Santiago De Cuba and Holguin. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. Parts of southeastern Florida might be placed under a tropical storm watch later Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The storm remains a minimal tropical storm due to its interaction with the Cuban land mass. The storm should stay over land into Wednesday morning, so further weakening could occur, and it is possible Noel could be downgraded to a tropical depression Tuesday night. Noel will move west-northwest across central Cuba Tuesday night, and then take a more northerly turn Wednesday. As this system moves northwestward, then more northerly back over water and away from land, it will be in a better position to intensify again Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Noel courtesy NOAA (click to enlarge)

However, as it moves northward, it will encounter stronger westerly upper level winds which could also prevent the storm from intensifying too much. Noel should pass just east of southeastern Florida Thursday morning by about 40-70 miles. Tropical storm-force winds from Noel extend out to about 175 miles east and northeast of the storm's center. No tropical storm-force winds are being reported directly related to Noel to the west or southwest of the storm at this time. However, as Noel moves into the Straits of Florida north of Cuba Wednesday, tropical storm-force winds will develop on the northwestern and western sides of the storm and could extend outward nearly 50 miles away from the storm's center.

North of Noel, the large pressure difference between the storm and a large high pressure system centered near the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States will produce wind gusts over 40 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday along the east coast of Florida and the Florida Keys and into the northern Bahamas. The heaviest flooding rains should stay along and to the east of the storm's track. Our current forecast track suggests the heaviest rainfall should fall from eastern Cuba into the central and northern Bahamas and stay mostly east of Florida. Nevertheless, there will be some heavy downpours across southeastern Florida Wednesday and Wednesday night. The strong pressure gradient will cause extremely rough surf with waves of 10-15 feet off the east coast of Florida, as well as north and east of the Bahamas.

The storm will start to track more northeastward Thursday morning in response to an upper-level trough supporting a cold front that is now moving into the Rockies. This trough will reach the eastern U.S. Thursday. This will cause the upper-level steering wind flow to be more from the west or southwest, prompting the storm to move northeastward and pull farther away from Florida Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. By Friday, Noel should be about 500 miles due east of the Carolina coast. On this forecast course, Noel should pass well west and northwest of Bermuda Friday, but that island will experience strong, gusty winds and windswept showers.